NASDAQ · Technology
$229.76 at scoring
A licensing fortress with a customer it cannot keep.
Qualcomm is two businesses welded together: a high-margin patent toll on every 5G phone shipped, and a Snapdragon silicon arm fighting for sockets in handsets, cars, and PCs. The score reveals genuine technical depth and balance-sheet strength, undercut by China exposure and the slow-motion loss of Apple's modem business. The open question is whether automotive, IoT, and AI PC wins can replace the Apple revenue before it walks out the door. Execution so far suggests yes, but the timing is tight.
The moat is real. The customer list is shrinking.
14 dimensions, as scored.
Balance Sheet
Debt-to-equity of 0.56 and $9.7B in cash against $12.4B annual FCF leaves the balance sheet sturdy with ample flexibility.
Cash Flow
Free cash flow of $12.4B on $242B market cap delivers a 5% yield, with licensing revenue providing high-margin ballast.
Revenue Growth
Handset cyclicality and the Apple modem cliff cap growth in the mid-single digits, well below true secular compounders.
Operating Margins
Operating margin of 25.5% reflects the licensing engine subsidising thinner chip economics, a respectable but not best-in-class blend.
Scalability
Licensing scales like software at near-zero marginal cost, but QCT chip sales carry real silicon and foundry costs that drag the blended figure.
Economic Moat
The standards-essential patent portfolio for CDMA, LTE, and 5G is a generational moat enforced by global courts and renewed with every wireless cycle.
Pricing Power
Royalty rates are anchored to device ASPs and contested by every major OEM, but the IP is non-optional for any 5G handset shipped.
Innovation
Snapdragon leadership in mobile SoCs, the Nuvia-powered Oryon CPU push into PCs, and automotive design wins show a deep and active R&D pipeline.
Leadership
Cristiano Amon has executed the diversification pivot into auto and IoT credibly, though the team lacks founder-level skin in the game.
Capital Allocation
Steady buybacks and a growing dividend are disciplined, but the Arm lawsuit and past M&A misses temper the record.
Secular Trend
5G, edge AI, automotive compute, and AI PCs are real multi-year tailwinds, partially offset by a maturing smartphone end market.
Geopolitical Risk
China accounts for roughly half of revenue and Taiwan-based fabrication concentrates exposure to the single most contested chokepoint in tech.
Customer Concentration
Apple and Samsung together drive a disproportionate share of QCT, and Apple is actively building its own modem to exit the relationship.
Valuation Risk
A 24x trailing P/E and 9x book are full for a mid-cycle semis name facing the Apple modem transition, though the FCF yield offers a floor.